Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
